Trade Setup: Short XHB, homebuilders etf 1-12-2012 18.59

Symbol Market Price Entry Stop Position Size Exit Gain
Short XHB 19.73 18.58 20 50% 20 3.82%
Stock Close Date: 
2-6-2012
Trade Entry: 

XHB is banged up against 2 year high. I personally don't believe that the market will take this lagging index to the upside until the market proves otherwise.

Some technical reasons.

1. The last bar has huge volume, a possible exhausion bar after a huge run up.

2. Up against 2 year high. Not likely to break it at least with some consolidation. In that case, I need to just get out if it doesn't crash back down.

Above 20-21 bucks, I am wrong and this thing could take off. I might consider long at that point.

 

Risk is about 8%, so 4 % of total portfolio at 50% position, if you want 3% explosure. Use 40% position instead.

Trade Exit: 

Bulls very strong, homebuilders are getting bought like they are in 2007. Wrong side of the trade

XHB , home builder ETF short at 1-12-1012 at 18.5